Decolonization of the Oropharynx, an Important and Neglected Reservoir of S. Aureus Colonization
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-11-30, after 2015-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: determinecancerdialysiscentralantibiotics
Phrases that lowered it: childrensubjectsvisitdailyoral -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2350 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2350 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 460 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- chlorhexidine, chlorhexidine gluconate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Optimal Treatment of MRSA Throat Carriers NCT04104178 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Decolonization Rate and Acceptance of a Complete Nasal Decolonization Kit With Povidone Iodine for MRSA Patients NCT05696132 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of 3% LTX-109 for Nasal Decolonisation of Staphylococcus Aureus NCT05889351 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Povidone Iodine Mouthwash, Gargle, and Nasal Spray to Reduce Naso- Pharyngeal Viral Load in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04371965 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Effect of Mouthwash in Reducing the Symptoms Associated With Flu and Cold Viruses NCT06479226 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.