Comparison of Oral Morphine Versus Nasal Ketamine Spray With Chitosan in Cancer Pain Outpatients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-07-06, after 2015-02-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painplaceboopioidmorphineonset
Phrases that lowered it: patientsallergiesbreastnasalmental -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7162 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 119 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 47 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 43812 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7162 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- chitosan, ketamine, morphine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intranasal (NAS) Ketamine for Cancer Pain NCT03146806 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Low Analgesic Doses of Ketamine Associated With Opioids in Refractory Cancer Pain Treatment NCT01326325 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- The Analgesic Effect of Combined Treatment With Intranasal S-ketamine and Intranasal Midazolam NCT01275547 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Analgesic Effects of Topical Ketamine Mouthwash in Patients Receiving Chemoradiation or Radiotherapy for Head & Neck Cancer NCT01653327 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Oral Ketamine Administration in Patients With Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT00961194 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.