To Study Generic Tacrolimus Ointment, 0.1% in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (Inflammation of Skin: Itchy, Red, Swollen, and Cracked Skin)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: infectionactivetreatedtacrolimuslesion
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitismoderateevaluate theatopicto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bioequivalence of Two Tacrolimus 0.1% Topical Ointment Formulations in Patients With Atopic Dermatitis NCT00833079 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study of Generic Pimecrolimus Cream, 1% in the Treatment of Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT02896101 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AN2898 and AN2728 Topical Ointments to Treat Mild-to-Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT01301508 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Lindioil (Indigo Naturalis Oil Extract) Ointment to Protopic® Ointment 0.1% in Treating Atopic Dermatitis NCT03614221 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Pimecrolimus Cream, 1% and Elidel® Cream, 1% in Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03107611 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.