Evaluate Safety and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Early Onset Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: onsetchronicpriormonthsbaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantslungsafetydays before
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Muscular Dystrophy - Study Extension NCT02531217 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Safety and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Limb Girdle Muscular Dystrophy 2B (LGMD2B) and Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT02579239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability, and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Limb Girdle and Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT02836418 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of ACE-083 in Patients With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT02927080 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1/2 Study of AOC 1020 in Participants With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT05747924 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.