Depot-opioids for Pre- and Postoperative Pain Relief After Primary Knee Arthroplasty.Tapentadol vs Oxycodone vs Placebo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painplacebokidneyfailurehospital
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmadrugsgradereceiveallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 88152 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17146 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Extended Release (ER) Tramadol Hydrochloride (HCl)/Acetaminophen With Immediate Release (IR) Tramadol HCl/Acetaminophen in Participants With Moderate to Severe Postoperative Pain NCT01814878 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of F14 for Management of Pain Following Total Knee Replacement NCT05603832 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Total Knee Arthroplasty Infiltration Study for Postoperative Analgesia NCT03015532 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Preoperative N1539 in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT03434275 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Peri-Articular-Multimodal Drug and Oral Celecoxib in Management of Postoperative Pain of Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT05324995 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.