Study of Ibrutinib in Patients With Symptomatic, Previously Untreated Waldenstrom's Macroglobulinemia, and Impact on Tumor Genomic Evolution Using Whole Genome Sequencing

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 30% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dlvitaminlymphomaheartcell
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalparticipantsystemicsubjects whofirst dose
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 223 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Daratumumab Plus Ibrutinib in Patients With Waldenstrӧm's Macroglobulinemia NCT03679624 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Ulocuplumab And Ibrutinib in Symptomatic Patients With Mutated CXCR4 Waldenstrom's Macroglobulinemia NCT03225716 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing BGB-3111 and Ibrutinib in Participants With Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia (WM) NCT03053440 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ibrutinib in Combination With Rituximab, in Japanese Participants With Waldenstrom's Macroglobulinemia (WM) NCT04062448 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Dasatinib In Waldenström Macroglobulinemia NCT04115059 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.