A Safety and Efficacy Evaluation of Topical Treatments for Moderate-Severe Facial Acne Vulgaris
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-06-30, after 2015-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatientpriortherapyreceiving
Phrases that lowered it: acnefacialvulgaristopicalvisit -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of DFD-03 Lotion in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris for 12 Weeks NCT03292640 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Bioequivalence Study of Adapalene Gel 0.3% in Subjects With Facial Acne Vulgaris NCT03650361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Clinical End Point Study of Generic Adapalene and Benzoyl Peroxide Gel Versus Epiduo® Forte Gel in Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02651220 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing Test to Aczone 7.5% and Both to a Placebo Control in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT04015375 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- To Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Clindamycin Phosphate 1.2% / Benzoyl Peroxide 5% Gel of CHL Versus DUAC® Gel NCT02005666 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.