Early Versus Late BCG Vaccination in HIV-1 Exposed Infants in Uganda in Uganda
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-06-21, after 2016-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: severerequiringweeks ofnonhospitalization
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationtrialvaccineeffectday -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 0 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 30 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of MVA85A Prime and Bacille Calmette-Guerin Boost Vaccination NCT01650389 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Dose-escalation Safety and Immunogenicity Study to Compare MTBVAC to BCG in Newborns With a Safety Arm in Adults NCT02729571 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of VPM1002 in Comparison With BCG in HIV-exposed/-Unexposed Newborn Infants in South Africa NCT02391415 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of VPM1002 in Comparison With BCG in Newborn Infants in South Africa NCT01479972 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Early Versus Delayed BCG Vaccination of HIV-exposed Infants NCT02062580 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.