A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of an RSV F Vaccine in Older Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2015-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: definedpriorsubjectchronicenrollment
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationadministrationweeks precedinglong term -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity Study to Evaluate Single- or Two-Dose Regimens Of RSV F Vaccine With and Without Aluminum Phosphate or Matrix-M1™ Adjuvants In Clinically-Stable Older Adults NCT03026348 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Placebo- Controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of the RSV-F Vaccine in Elderly Adults NCT02266628 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of RSVpreF in Older Adults in Korea NCT06593587 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the RSV-F Vaccine in Older Adults Previously Treated With the Same Vaccine or Placebo in the Prior Year. NCT02593071 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study on the Immune Response and Safety of a Vaccine Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) When Given Alone or Co-administered With an Adjuvanted Vaccine Against Influenza in Adults Aged 65 Years and Above NCT05568797 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.