UCB Proof of Concept Study in Patients With Primary Sjögren's Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectin subjectssubjects withleukemiacell
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvto evaluateevaluate therheumatoidfirst dose
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Profiles of UCB5857 in Healthy Subjects NCT02207595 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Effects of GLPG3970 Given as an Oral Treatment for 12 Weeks in Adults With Active Primary Sjögren's Syndrome (pSS) NCT04700280 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Subcutaneous Belimumab and Intravenous Rituximab Co-administration in Subjects With Primary Sjogren's Syndrome NCT02631538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A First-in-human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of UCB3101 in Healthy Participants NCT06555601 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• Two-arm Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Ianalumab (VAY736) in Patients With Active Sjogren's Syndrome NCT05350072 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.