Arimoclomol Prospective Study in Participants Diagnosed With Niemann-Pick Disease Type C

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: prior tomonths priorctcentralimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyagedparticipantsefficacy andparticipant
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• N-Acetyl-L-Leucine for Niemann-Pick Disease, Type C (NPC) NCT03759639 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Niemann-Pick Type C Treatment With Adrabetadex for Symptoms of Brain and Nervous System NCT03643562 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Intravenous Trappsol Cyclo (HPBCD) in Niemann-Pick Type C Patients NCT02912793 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• VTS-270 to Treat Niemann-Pick Type C1 (NPC1) Disease NCT02534844 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Trial to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Cannabidiol Oral Solution (GWP42003-P; CBD-OS) in Children and Adolescents With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT04745026 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.