Study of Sulfatinib in Treating Advanced Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma and Iodine-refractory Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapysubjects withbleedingmrihormone
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvhepatitis virusqtclinically significantdrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Iodine I 131 and Pazopanib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Thyroid Cancer Previously Treated With Iodine I 131 That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT01413113 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Ulixertinib (BVD-523) and Hydroxychloroquine in Patients W Advanced MAPK-Mutated Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinomas NCT04145297 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Evaluate BL-M17D1 in Patients w/HER2-Expressing/Mutant Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT06714617 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Anti-PD-1 Antibody With HD IL-2 in Metastatic Melanoma NCT03476174 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in Subjects With Iodine-131 Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer to Evaluate Whether an Oral Starting Dose of 18 Milligram (mg) Daily Will Provide Comparable Efficacy to a 24 mg Starting Dose, But Have a Better Safety Profile NCT02702388 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.