Acetic Acid Chromoendoscopy in Barrett's Esophagus Surveillance
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-07-30, after 2017-03-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbiopsytherapyactivediagnosis
Phrases that lowered it: patients whocriteria patientsallergyesophagitisacid -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2384 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 282 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- acetic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Impact of Adjuvant Liquid Alginate on Endoscopic Ablation Therapy of Complicated Barrett's Esophagus NCT03193216 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Trial of a Gastrin Receptor Antagonist in Barrett's Esophagus NCT01298999 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Melatonin Associated to Acid Inhibition for Chemoprevention in Barret Esophagus: a Pilot Study NCT01566474 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Study of Multiplexed Heptapeptides for Detection of Neoplasia in the Esophagus NCT03589443 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Lower Lugol's Solution Concentration on Reducing the Adverse Symptoms of Chromoendoscopy With Iodine Staining NCT03180944 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.