A Study of MHAA4549A as Monotherapy for Acute Uncomplicated Seasonal Influenza A in Otherwise Healthy Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: influenzachronicprioracuteenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyrespiratorydrugadministrationpharmacokinetics
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 247 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of MHAA4549A in Healthy Volunteers in an Influenza Challenge Model NCT01980966 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of MHAA4549A in Combination With Oseltamivir Versus Oseltamivir in Participants With Severe Influenza A Infection NCT02293863 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study of an Investigational Monoclonal Antibody, VIS410, in Subjects With Uncomplicated Influenza A NCT02989194 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity Study of H3N2 M2SR Monovalent Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Volunteers NCT02822105 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2a to Evaluate the Safety of MEDI8852 in Adults With Uncomplicated Influenza NCT02603952 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.