Neoadjuvant Paclitaxel Plus Epirubicin Versus Vinorelbine Plus Epirubicin in Breast Cancer With TEKT4 Variations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedlocallycarcinomachemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseand safetymmhgaccordingclinical
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7331 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 33408 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant 5-fluorouracil, Epirubicin and Cyclophosphamide (FEC) Followed by Weekly Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab in Her2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT01340430 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab With or Without Lapatinib in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT00770809 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Trastuzumab Plus Standard Chemotherapy Given Before Surgery in Breast Cancer Patients With Low HER 2 Expression NCT00944047 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Nab-PTX and Trastuzumab for ER Negative and HER2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT02598310 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Paclitaxel With Trastuzumab and Lapatinib in HER2-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01827163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.