A Study to Evaluate Long Term Safety, Tolerability, and Effectiveness of Olesoxime in Patients With Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 860 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplepriorspinallongphase ii
  Phrases that lowered it: singledoseopen labeldrugmg
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Olesoxime (TRO19622) in 3-25 Years SMA Patients. NCT01302600 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO6885247 in Adult and Pediatric Patients With Spinal Muscular Atrophy (MOONFISH) NCT02240355 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II Multi-centre, Extension Study to Investigate the Long Term Safety of ONO-2506PO in Patients Diagnosed With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT00694941 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Safety Extension Study of Oral Edaravone Administered in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT04577404 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of NMD670 in Ambulatory Adult Patients With Type 3 Spinal Muscular Atrophy NCT05794139 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.