Melatonin Oral Gel for Oral Mucositis in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer Undergoing Chemoradiation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomacancerand neckhead and
  Phrases that lowered it: gelmaleoralfemalemetabolic
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Topical/Oral Melatonin for Preventing Concurrent Radiochemotherapy Induced Oral Mucositis/Xerostomia Cancer Patients NCT02430298 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Clonidine HCl MBT vs. Placebo to Prevent Chemoradiotherapy-Induced Severe Oral Mucositis in Oropharyngeal Cancer. NCT04648020 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AG013 in Oral Mucositis Compared to Placebo When Administered Three Times Per Day NCT03234465 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Study of the Effects of Brilacidin Oral Rinse on Radiation-induced Oral Mucositis in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02324335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Mouthwash Medicine for the Reduction or Prevention of Mouth Ulceration Caused by Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer NCT06669390 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.