Long-term Safety and Efficacy Study of Adalimumab in Pediatric Subjects With Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withsubjectterm safetylongcompleted
  Phrases that lowered it: colitisto evaluateefficacyadalimumabopen
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 61713 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Adalimumab in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT02065557 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study to Evaluate Long Term Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Repeated Dosing in Subjects With Crohn's Disease and Who Participated and Successfully Completed M14-115 NCT02185014 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Long Term Safety of Adalimumab in Pediatric Subjects Who Have Demonstrated Clinical Response in M06-806 NCT00686374 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety Of PF-00547659 In Ulcerative Colitis NCT01771809 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics of Adalimumab With Methotrexate for Treatment of Patients With Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT01716039 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.