A Multi-Center Study of Riociguat in Patients With Sickle Cell Diseases
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-04, after 2017-04-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindrandomized doublecontrolledsickle
Phrases that lowered it: patientsinhibitorspatientcombinationadequate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5827 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2750 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- riociguat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Pociredir NCT05169580 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Dose Escalation Study of PF-07209326 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04255875 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, And Pharmacodynamics Study Of PF-04447943, Co-Administered With And Without Hydroxyurea, In Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT02114203 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Losartan to Reverse Sickle Nephropathy NCT01479439 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.