Combination Obeticholic Acid (OCA) and Statins for Monitoring of Lipids (CONTROL)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantsubjectsacutestatinsubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: visitacidproductclinicalday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 157643 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Double-blind Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of EDP-305 in Subjects With Liver-biopsy Proven NASH NCT04378010 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Saroglitazar Magnesium for the Treatment of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis With Fibrosis NCT05011305 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Emricasan, a Caspase Inhibitor, for Evaluation in Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Fibrosis NCT02686762 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Saroglitazar Magnesium in the Treatment of Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT03863574 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Oral LPCN 1144 in Subjects With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT04134091 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.