A 12-Week, Phase 2 Study of Gemcabene in Hypercholesterolemia Patients on Stable Moderate and High-Intensity Statins

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: liverdefinedpriorchronicagent
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatemgefficacytype diabetesonce daily
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Gemcabene in Patients With Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia on Stable, Lipid-Lowering Therapy (COBALT-1) NCT02722408 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A 12-Week Study to Assess the Efficacy Safety and Tolerability of Gemcabene in Subjects With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT02944383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and the Safety of Single Pill Combination (SPC) Ezetimibe/Rosuvastatin in Chinese Adult Patients With Primary Hypercholesterolemia Not Adequately Controlled on Statin Therapy NCT04669041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ezetimibe/Rosuvastatin and Amlodipine Patients With High Blood Pressure and High Cholesterol NCT07564726 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Saroglitazar Magnesium 4 mg for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) in People Living With HIV in the US NCT05211284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.