Anti-VEGF Treatment for Prevention of PDR/DME
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-11, after 2016-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationto determinemultipleevidenceimaging
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsmacularcenterand safety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 47 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3581 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1618 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aflibercept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DRCR.Net Aflibercept vs. Bevacizumab + Deferred Aflibercept for the Treatment of CI-DME NCT03321513 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Prompt Panretinal Photocoagulation Versus Ranibizumab+Deferred Panretinal Photocoagulation for Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy NCT01489189 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Treatment for CI-DME in Eyes With Very Good VA Study NCT01909791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Comparative Effectiveness Study of Intravitreal Aflibercept, Bevacizumab, and Ranibizumab for Diabetic Macular Edema NCT01627249 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Phase II Combination Steroid and Anti-VEGF for Persistent DME NCT01945866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.