Pharmacokinetic (PK) Bioequivalence and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Julphar Insulin N and Huminsulin® Basal

NCT02634528 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 1 Julphar Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (industry) Started 2016-11-16 Completed

Riskier than 1% of active trials

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

How it ended

Completed on 2017-01-20, after 2016-11-16 start.

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcellbasalriskpain
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersjudgedbetween 18smoking
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase: 1 (typical: 2)
Number of arms: 2
Allocation: randomized
Design: crossover (typical: parallel)
Primary purpose: treatment
Blinding: double (typical: none)
Has a data monitoring committee: No (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party: sponsor
Collaborators: 1 (typical: 0)
Keywords listed: 1

Who can join

Minimum age: 18
Maximum age: 55 (typical: 71)
Sex: male (typical: all)
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type: industry (typical: academic or other)
Sponsor's past trials: 2 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 1
Drug has FAERS history: Yes (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas: metabolic, endocrine
Drugs matched to FDA substances: isophane insulin human

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

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Pharmacokinetic (PK) Bioequivalence and Pharmacodynamics of Julphar Insulin R and Huminsulin® Normal NCT02634515 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Effects of Insulex® R in Comparison to Humulin® R in Healthy Subjects NCT07364669 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Comparative Glucose Clamp Study of Wockhardt's Human Isophane Insulin With Novolin N,in Healthy Subjects NCT00772265 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Comparison of the Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) Biosimilarity of Proposed Biosimilar Rapid-Acting Insulin Aspart (I004) and NovoLog After Single-Dose Subcutaneous Administration to Healthy Volunteers NCT05539872 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.