Topical Chemoprevention of Skin Cancer Biomarkers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationtherapyradiationpriormelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttopicalarthritisweek
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 268 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52997 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9071 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Topical Diclofenac and Topical DFMO Chemoprevention Trial in Subjects With a History of Skin Cancer NCT04091022 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Proof of Concept Study to Access Superficial Basal Cell Carcinoma in Adults NCT05713760 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Two Concentrations of DFD-07 Cream, in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis (AK) of the Face and/or Scalp Over a 12-week Treatment Period NCT03116698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Bioequivalence of Pimecrolimus Cream 1% and Elidel R in Treatment of Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03297502 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Single-Center Study Evaluating Systemic Exposure and Safety of KX2-391 Ointment 1% on the Face or Balding Scalp in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis NCT03575780 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.