A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Who Have Had a Suboptimal Response to an Adequate Course of Disease-Modifying Treatment (DMT)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosismrior equalequal toprogressive
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantevaluate theand safetyscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Early Stage Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT03085810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Who Have Had a Suboptimal Response to an Adequate Course of Disease-Modifying Treatment (DMT) NCT02861014 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Phase III, Non-Inferiority, Randomized, Open-Label, Parallel Group, Multicenter Study To Investigate The Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, Safety And Radiological And Clinical Effects Of Subcutaneous Ocrelizumab Versus Intravenous Ocrelizumab In Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05232825 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Xacrel® (Ocrelizumab) in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT04966338 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Ocrelizumab or Alemtuzumab Compared With Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Multiple Sclerosis - a Phase-2 Randomised Controlled Trial NCT04971005 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.