Treatment of Adult Patients With Hemoglobin SC Disease (SCYTHE)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-11-16, after 2015-10-12 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celltherapycellspatientseffective
Phrases that lowered it: painbloodbody80individuals -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4784 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 69 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 69 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 193 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 57 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4784 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 985 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydroxyurea
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Hemoglobin SC Disease With Hydroxyurea NCT02336373 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Assessment of Algorithm-Based Hydroxyurea Dosing on Fetal Hemoglobin Response, Acute Complications, and Organ Function in People With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02225132 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Hydroxyurea and Transfusion NCT03644953 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Sickle Cell Patients Hospitalized in Pain Crisis With Prophylactic Dose Low-molecular-weight Heparin (LMWH) Versus Placebo NCT01419977 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of MP4CO in Adult Sickle Cell Patients NCT01356485 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.