Apatinib and Irinotecan Combination Treatment in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-31, after 2016-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerheartdiseasefailuresubjects
Phrases that lowered it: patientssafety oflinediseasesmmhg -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14691 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 22 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14691 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2197 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib, irinotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Apatinib and Irinotecan Combination Treatment in Unresectable or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03251417 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Apatinib for Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer After the Failure of Standard Treatment NCT02976896 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Apatinib for Recurrent or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03274011 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Compare Apatinib Plus Chemotherapy Drug Versus Chemotherapy Drug as Second-line Treatment in NSCLC NCT03256721 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Dose Finding and Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics Study of Apatinib in the Treatment of Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT01531777 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.