LCL161 Plus Topotecan for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer and Select Gynecologic Malignancies
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-07-30, after 2016-03-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchronicchemotherapyheartdisease
Phrases that lowered it: maledosepatients whoweeksdrug -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 122 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19983 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5795 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pegfilgrastim, topotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Carboplatin and Etoposide Plus LBH589 for Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00958022 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- A Trial of Ribocilcib (LEE011) and Weekly Paclitaxel in Patients With Rb+ Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02599363 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- AZD 2811 Monotherapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N3] NCT03366675 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Study of AZD6738 and Olaparib Combination Therapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N2] NCT03428607 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.