Docetaxel and PROSTVAC for Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-05, after 2016-01-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: canceror equalequal tometastaticpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: participantsprostatepressureaminotransferasetestosterone -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1013 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1013 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 148 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14935 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3235 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Enzalutamide With or Without Vaccine Therapy for Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01867333 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Prostvac in Patients With Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer NCT02649439 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Combination Immunotherapy in Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer NCT03315871 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Enzalutamide in Combination With PSA-TRICOM in Patients With Non-Metastatic Castration Sensitive Prostate Cancer NCT01875250 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- PROSTVAC in Combination With Nivolumab in Men With Prostate Cancer NCT02933255 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.