Dose Finding for the Treatment of Rhinitis/Rhinoconjunctivitis Against Grass Pollen Allergy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-30, after 2015-12-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: vaccinekidneychronicsubjectdisease
Phrases that lowered it: rhinitispollenasthmagrassrhinoconjunctivitis -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: screening (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 9 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- screening (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 14 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Demonstration of Equivalence and Early Onset of a Novel Anti-allergic Nasal Spray Compared to Marketed Nasal Spray NCT03755557 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Evaluation for the Treatment of Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis/Rhinoconjunctivitis NCT04874714 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Grass Pollen Allergen Immunotherapy Tablet (AIT) Time Course Study NCT02005627 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Grass Pollen-derived Peptides to Treat Seasonal Allergic Rhinoconjunctivitis NCT00833066 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of 300 IR Sublingual Immunotherapy (SLIT) Tablets in Adult Patients With Allergic Grass Pollen Rhinoconjunctivitis NCT00955825 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.