Eight Week Study of Treatment With DFD-07 for Actinic Keratosis of the Face and Scalp

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycarcinomacancercellpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalvisitproductsareathe study
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Two Concentrations of DFD-07 Cream, in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis (AK) of the Face and/or Scalp Over a 12-week Treatment Period NCT03116698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing GDC 695 and Diclofenac Sodium Gel, 3% in Subjects With Actinic Keratoses NCT02952898 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Multicenter, Double-blind, Placebo Controlled Comparing Test Fluorouracil Cream to Carac Cream in Actinic Keratosis NCT02616601 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Generic Fluorouracil 0.5% Cream and 0.5% Carac® and Placebo NCT01354717 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Therapeutic Equivalence of Diclofenac Sodium Gel 3% vs Solaraze ® in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT03826550 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.