Metformin as a Novel Therapy for Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectmetforminpainplacebokidney
  Phrases that lowered it: effectpatients withhypertensionsolidfunction
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 155533 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Feasibility Study of Metformin Therapy in ADPKD NCT02903511 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Mineralocorticoid Antagonism and Endothelial Dysfunction in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) NCT01853553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• 8-Week Study of Tolvaptan Dose Forms in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) NCT01451827 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Short-term Effects of an SGLT2 Inhibitor on Divalent Ions in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT06435858 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tolvaptan in Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease Between Late Stage 2 to Early Stage 4 Due to Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT02160145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.