Preoperative MPDL3280A in Transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Bladder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellhepatitiscarcinomaradiationantibody
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritispatientsrheumatoidfemaletype diabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Atezolizumab in Localized Bladder Cancer NCT02451423 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• CV301 Combined With PD-1/L1 Blockade in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Bladder Cancer NCT03628716 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab With Bevacizumab in Previously Untreated Metastatic/Unresectable Urothelial Cancer NCT03272217 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab Monotherapy in Patients With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer to Explore in Vivo the Mechanisms of Action of Pembrolizumab NCT03212651 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Combination Chemotherapy Before Surgery for the Treatment of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04383743 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.