A Study Evaluating Regorafenib Following Completion of Standard Chemotherapy for Patients With Colon Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationequal toor equalimagingprior to
  Phrases that lowered it: openoxaliplatinproteincarcinomainfection
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3000 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 797 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Colorectal Cancer Patients (Stage IIIC) With Either Regorafenib or Standard of Care (No Treatment) After Adjuvant FOLFOX NCT02425683 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Lower or Standard Dose Regorafenib in Treating Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02368886 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Colorectal Cancer Treated With Adjuvant Regorafenib Versus Placebo After Curative Treatment of Liver Metastases in a Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase-III STudy NCT01939223 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Regorafenib Plus 5-Fluorouracil/Leucovorin Beyond Progression in mCRC NCT03099486 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Regorafenib in Good Performance Status Patients With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Colorectal Adenocarcinoma NCT02023333 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.