Study Evaluating the Interest of Vismodegib as Neo-adjuvant Treatment of Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-15, after 2014-11-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientpatientsstagetumorenrollment
Phrases that lowered it: carcinomaneckaccordingopen labelresults -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 620 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 294 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vismodegib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Assess The Efficacy And Safety Of Vismodegib And Radiotherapy In Advanced Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT02956889 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Neoadjuvant Vismodegib in Patients With Large and/or Recurrent Resectable Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT03035188 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Radiation Therapy and Vismodegib for Advanced Head/Neck Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT01835626 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Vismodegib (GDC-0449) in Operable Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT01201915 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Photodynamic Therapy and Vismodegib for Multiple Basal Cell Carcinomas NCT02639117 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.