Efficacy and Safety of Etonogestrel + 17β-Estradiol Vaginal Ring (MK-8342B) in Women With Primary Dysmenorrhea (With Optional Extension) (MK-8342B-059)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellyears ofof agetrialcycle
  Phrases that lowered it: paingastrointestinalhistoryabnormaldrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 415 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35609 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 194636 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Etonogestrel + 17β-Estradiol Vaginal Ring (MK-8342B) in the Treatment of Women With Primary Dysmenorrhea (MK-8342B-060) NCT02668822 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Etonogestrel + 17β-Estradiol Vaginal Ring and Levonorgestrel-Ethinyl Estradiol Combined Oral Contraceptive in Adult Women at Risk for Pregnancy (MK-8342B-062) NCT02616146 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Etonogestrel + 17β-Estradiol Vaginal Ring in Women at Risk for Pregnancy (MK-8342B-061) NCT02524288 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Contraceptive Vaginal Rings on Primary Dysmenorrhea (P08257/MK-8175A/MK-8342B-057) NCT01670656 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Effect of KYG0395 on Primary Dysmenorrhea NCT01588236 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.