BuCY vs TBICY Conditioning Regimen for Standard-risk ALL Undergoing Allo-HSCT
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-02-28, after 2016-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: leukemiacellstandardacuterisk
Phrases that lowered it: bodyefficacysafetybloodvital -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50823 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10070 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 12 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 14 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 50823 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10070 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- busulfan, cyclophosphamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Fludarabine/Busulfan and Cyclophosphamide Conditioning for Adult Lymphoid Malignancies NCT01435447 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- IDA+BUCY vs BUCY Conditioning Regimen for Intermediate-risk AML Undergoing Auto-HSCT NCT02671708 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- G-CSF+Decitabine+BUCY vs BUCY Conditioning Regimen for RAEB-1, REAB-2 and AML Secondary to MDS Undergoing Allo-HSCT NCT02744742 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- GVHD Prophylaxis With Post-transplantation Bendamustine in Refractory Leukemia NCT02799147 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- A Study of Haploidentical Bone Marrow Transplant for Patients With Hematologic Malignancies NCT02623439 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.