Study on the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Cariprazine Relative to Placebo in Participants With Bipolar I Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: scoredepressiontherapydiagnosisrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsthe efficacysafetyresults
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Efficacy of a Fixed-dose Regimen of Cariprazine Compared to Placebo for Treatment of the Depressive Episode in Participants With Bipolar I Disorder NCT02670538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Cariprazine in Participants With Bipolar Depression NCT01396447 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of RGH-188 (Cariprazine) in Bipolar Depression NCT00852202 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Cariprazine Study in the Prevention of Relapse in Bipolar I Disorder Patients Whose Current Episode is Manic or Depressive, With or Without Mixed Features NCT03573297 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Assessing the Role of Cariprazine in Improving Cognition in Euthymic Bipolar Patients NCT04771299 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.