A Safety and Efficacy Study of Estradiol Vaginal Capsule in Postmenopausal Women With Vulvovaginal Atrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsfailureheartstroketherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: safetyefficacy40 yearsmoderatecigarettes
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Study Generic Estradiol 10 mcg Vaginal Tablets in the Treatment of Vulvar and Vaginal Atrophy in Post Menopausal Women. NCT02668796 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Ospemifene in Patients With Moderate to Severe Vaginal Dryness Due to Menopause NCT02638337 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Two Vaginal Tablets, Produced at Different Sites, in Postmenopausal Women With Atrophic Vaginitis NCT01085877 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Bioequivalence of Estradiol Vaginal Inserts, 10 mcg and Vagifem® 10 mcg and Compare to Placebo NCT01779947 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Effects of Vaginal Estrogen on Serum Estradiol During Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy in Breast Cancer Patients with Vulvovaginal Atrophy: a Prospective Trial NCT06654570 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.