Neratinib in Treating Older Patients With Stage IV HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: qtccancermetastaticventricularcell
  Phrases that lowered it: within weeksaminotransferaseweeks oftransaminasethe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neratinib With and Without Temsirolimus for Patients With HER2 Activating Mutations in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01827267 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Incidence and Severity of Diarrhea in Patients With HER2 Positive Breast Cancer Treated With Trastuzumab and Neratinib NCT03094052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Combination of Weekly Paclitaxel With Neratinib and Trastuzumab in Women With Metastatic HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01423123 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Neratinib and Trastuzumab Biosimilar in Patients with HER2 Mutated Advanced Solid Cancers NCT06083662 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Neratinib +/- Fulvestrant in Metastatic HER2 Non-amplified But HER2 Mutant Breast Cancer NCT01670877 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.