MDCO-216 Infusions Leading to Changes in Atherosclerosis: A Novel Therapy in Development to Improve Cardiovascular Outcomes - Proof of Concept Intravascular Ultrasound (IVUS), Lipids, and Other Surrogate Biomarkers Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (49 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-10-26, after 2015-12-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboacuterandomizationcoronarydouble blind
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsmgulnaminotransferase -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ApoA-I Synthesis Stimulation and Intravascular Ultrasound for Coronary Atheroma Regression Evaluation NCT01067820 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Imaging of Coronary Plaques in Participants Treated With Evolocumab NCT03570697 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- VISTA-16 Trial: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Short-term A-002 Treatment in Subjects With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01130246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Vascular Effects of Alirocumab in Acute MI-Patients NCT03067844 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of MEDI6570 in Patients With a History of Myocardial Infarction NCT04610892 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.