A Pilot Study of Tralokinumab in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Alopecia Areata

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomasubjects withstagerandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: smokingallergenvisitasthmahas history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Tralokinumab Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis on Skin Barrier Function NCT04556461 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• ATI-501 Oral Suspension Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Alopecia Areata, Alopecia Universalis or Alopecia Totalis NCT03594227 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A STUDY TO EVALUATE THE SAFETY, TOLERABILITY, PHARMACOKINETICS, AND PHARMACODYNAMICS OF MULTIPLE SUBCUTANEOUS INJECTIONS OF SHR-1819 IN PATIENTS WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE ATOPIC DERMATITIS NCT05197023 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Dual JAK1/TYK2 Inhibitor for Cicatricial Alopecia NCT05076006 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics (PK)/Pharmacodynamics (PD) of MOR106 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03568071 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.