Screening Trial of Nivolumab With Image Guided, Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Versus Nivolumab Alone in Patients With Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastatic28 daysradiationprior
  Phrases that lowered it: mgwomenlesionpatients whoinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 414 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3245 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor for Patients With Primary Untreated or Recurrent/Metastatic SCCHN NCT03878979 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab and Ipilimumab and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Salivary Gland Cancers NCT03749460 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Phase II Study on the Optimization of Immunotherapy in Squamous Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT03620123 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in Patients With Salivary Gland Cancer NCT03172624 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy and SBRT for Metastatic Head and Neck Carcinomas NCT03283605 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.