DBPC-Dose-finding-trial of Vitamin D3 for SCIT in Birch Pollen Allergic Patients.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adjuvantnegativeuncontrolledcellsmultiple
  Phrases that lowered it: allergenrhinitishealthyasthmapollen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 119187 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Range Finding Study With rBet v1-FV - in Adult Patients With Birch Pollen-Allergic Seasonal Rhinoconjunctivitis NCT01490411 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Depigoid Vaccine Dermatophagoides Pteronyssinus or 50% Dermatophagoides Pteronyssinus / 50% Dermatophagoides Farinae (500 DPP/ml), to Treat Allergic Rhinitis or Rhinoconjunctivitis With or Without Asthma NCT01591343 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multi-Centre Study to Assess the Efficacy of PURETHAL Mites Mixture 50,000 AUeq/mL Subcutaneous Immunotherapy in Adult Subjects With Moderate to Severe Allergic Rhinitis/Rhinoconjunctivitis With or Without Asthma Induced by House Dust Mite (HDM) NCT06920771 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study for Depigoid Birch: 4 Doses in Patients With Allergic Rhinitis/Rhinoconjunctivitis +-Asthma NCT01144429 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• S.C. Immunotherapy With BM41 in Patients With Allergic Rhino-conjunctivitis Caused by Birch Pollen NCT04912076 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.