A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of PA21 (Velphoro®) and Calcium Acetate (Phoslyra®) in Paediatric and Adolescent Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Patients With Hyperphosphataemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withckdsubjectweighinformation
  Phrases that lowered it: investigate theefficacyto investigatethe aimpatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of PA21, a Phosphate Binder, in Dialysis Patients NCT01324128 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Extension Study to Investigate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of PA21, a Phosphate Binder in Dialysis Patients NCT01464190 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of Paricalcitol For Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Pediatric Participants With Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) NCT04064827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Dose-finding Study of MCI-196 NCT01814904 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety of Paricalcitol Capsules in Pediatric Subjects Ages 10 to 16 With Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Receiving Peritoneal Dialysis or Hemodialysis NCT01382212 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.