A Trial to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Liraglutide in Obese Children Aged 7 to 11 Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicstime ofplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: this trialbodyagedkgtrial is
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 37.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 579 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 11 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Trial to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Liraglutide in Obese Adolescent Subjects Aged 12 to 17 Years NCT01789086 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Safety of Liraglutide in Pediatric Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00943501 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Liraglutide in Combination With Metformin Compared to Metformin Alone, in Children and Adolescents With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01541215 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Effect of Liraglutide for Weight Management in Pubertal Adolescent Subjects With Obesity NCT02918279 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Assess the Effect of Liraglutide on Gastric Emptying in Healthy Obese Volunteers NCT00978393 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.