An Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics Study of Subcutaneously Administered Ustekinumab in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis in Pediatric Participants Greater Than or Equal to 6 to Less Than 12 Years of Age

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorequal toor equalprotocol definedpediatric
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspsoriasisparticipantplaquemoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 11 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ustekinumab in Pediatric Participants (U-POPS) With Juvenile Psoriatic Arthritis or Psoriasis NCT05252533 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Pediatric Study in Children and Adolescents With Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT02471144 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Long-term Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy of Secukinumab in Pediatric Patients of Age 6 to <18 Years, With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03668613 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Ustekinumab in Adolescent Patients With Psoriasis (CADMUS) NCT01090427 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ustekinumab or Guselkumab in Pediatric Participants With Active Juvenile Psoriatic Arthritis NCT05083182 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.