Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled Molgramostim (rhGM-CSF) in Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-09-27, after 2016-03-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 90% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 90% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- molgramostim
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety Extension Trial of Inhaled Molgramostim in Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis NCT03482752 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
- Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis GM-CSF Inhalation Efficacy Trial in Japan NCT02835742 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Granulocyte Macrophage-Colony Stimulating Factor (GM-CSF) Inhalation to Improve Host Defense and Pulmonary Barrier Restoration NCT02595060 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of a Single Dose of Inhaled Sargramostim in Patients With Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis NCT03006146 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Pilot Trial of Inhaled Molgramostim in Non-tuberculous Mycobacterial (NTM) Infection NCT03421743 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.