A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) With an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-02-08, after 2016-03-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosissafety tolerabilitylong termterm safetythe long
Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrajointrheumatoidefficacy -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 52 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 98 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 100% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- upadacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study Comparing Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs Alone NCT02675426 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have Not Previously Taken Methotrexate NCT02706873 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Compare Upadacitinib to Abatacept in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease- Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT03086343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study Comparing Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have an Inadequate Response to MTX (SELECT-MONOTHERAPY) NCT02706951 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study With Upadacitinib (ABT-494) in Subjects From China and Selected Countries With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) NCT02955212 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.