The Sustained Effects of Ketamine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-03-31, after 2015-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mripriordsmbrainschizophrenia
Phrases that lowered it: healthyalcoholdrughistoryabuse -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 356 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 356 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 125 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 49868 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6958 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 68.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine, lamotrigine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ketamine in the Treatment of Depression NCT01558063 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Effects of TAK-063 on Preventing Ketamine-Induced Brain Activity Changes as Well as Psychotic-Like Symptoms in Healthy Male Adults NCT01892189 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Ketamine on Attentiveness NCT01165294 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Intravenous Ketamine Plus Neurocognitive Training for Depression NCT03237286 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2979165 and LY2140023 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01524237 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.